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Many of our seminars and public events this year will continue as in person or as hybrid (online and in person) events.

Please check our website listings and Twitter feed @STICERD_LSE for updates.

Unless otherwise specified, in-person seminars are open to the public. Please ensure you have informed the event contact as early as possible.

Those unable to join the seminars in-person are welcome to participate via zoom if the event is hybrid.

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About this event

An agent updates her beliefs over a set of variables after observing some of them. We provide a representation of updated beliefs that captures limited propagation of her observation's implications through the directed acyclic graph that represents the relations between all variables. Failure of contingent thinking occurs when she performs fewer inference steps from unobserved variables than observed ones, leading to correlation neglect and violations of iterated expectations. Our framework offers a new perspective on existing experiments about contingent thinking and suggests new directions. We characterize the model's relationship with familiar Bayesian and non-Bayesian benchmarks, and illustrate it with applications to public-good provision and social learning games.